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NEW ZEALAND UNEMPLOYMENT RISES TO 5.7%, HIGHEST SINCE 2015

New Zealand’s unemployment rate increased to 5.7% in Q3, its highest level since 2015, exceeding both the 5.5% market consensus and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s forecast. Employment fell 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, with around 5,000 fewer people employed, while the employment rate declined to 66.4%. Full-time employment dropped by 17,000, partly offset by a 15,000 increase in part-time jobs, and actual hours worked fell 1.6%. Meanwhile, annual wage growth in the Labour Cost Index excluding overtime slowed to 2.0%, while the underutilisation rate reached 13.8%. The RBNZ kept its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.75% last week.

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Daily Market Update November 4, 2026

NEW ZEALAND UNEMPLOYMENT RISES TO 5.7%, HIGHEST SINCE 2015

NEW ZEALAND UNEMPLOYMENT RISES TO 5.7%, HIGHEST SINCE 2015

New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.7% in Q3 from 5.6%, reaching its highest level since 2015, according to ActionForex. The reading was above both the 5.5% market consensus and the RBNZ’s 5.5% forecast.

Employment declined 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, compared with expectations for a 0.4% increase. The number of employed people fell by around 5,000 to 2.891 million, while the employment rate declined from 66.7% to 66.4%. Labour force participation was 70.4%, below the 70.7% consensus.

Employment composition also shifted during the quarter. According to ActionForex, full-time employment fell by 17,000, partly offset by an increase of 15,000 in part-time employment. Actual hours worked declined 1.6% quarter-on-quarter, while usual hours worked fell 0.5%. The underutilisation rate stood at 13.8%, representing around 438,000 people.

Private-sector wage growth also slowed. The Labour Cost Index excluding overtime rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, down from 0.7% previously and below expectations of 0.5%. Annual growth eased from 2.1% to 2.0%. According to ActionForex, all-sector LCI growth rose to 2.1% year-on-year from 2.0%, while average ordinary hourly earnings growth increased to 2.9% from 2.8%.

The RBNZ kept its Official Cash Rate at 2.75% last week, according to ActionForex.

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US OCTOBER CPI RISES 0.4% VS 0.3% EXPECTED; DECEMBER 25-BASIS-POINT HIKE ODDS AT 91%

Daily Market Update

US OCTOBER CPI RISES 0.4% VS 0.3% EXPECTED; DECEMBER 25-BASIS-POINT HIKE ODDS AT 91%

US consumer prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month in October, exceeding economists’ expectations of 0.3%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3%. The shelter index also increased by 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of the monthly rise in the all-items index. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish an annual inflation comparison for October 2026 because it did not collect CPI data in October 2025 during the government shutdown. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated support for a December rate increase and said policymakers could consider a larger 50-basis-point move if inflationary pressures worsened. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at least two more quarter-point increases were needed to bring inflation under control. According to CME FedWatch data cited by Investing.com, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December rose to 91%, up from 84% on Monday, while the probability of a 50-basis-point increase reached 10%. Markets are now looking ahead to the US October Producer Price Index (PPI), scheduled for release on Friday, November 13, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (13:30 GMT).

KOSPI +4.0% VS HANG SENG +0.4%: ASIAN STOCKS ADVANCE AFTER WALL STREET RALLY

Daily Market Update

KOSPI +4.0% VS HANG SENG +0.4%: ASIAN STOCKS ADVANCE AFTER WALL STREET RALLY

Asian equity markets advanced on Tuesday following a rally on Wall Street, with South Korea and Taiwan leading regional gains. The KOSPI climbed 4.0% to 5,219.37, while Taiwan’s Taiex gained 3.4%. Japanese stocks also rose, with the Nikkei 225 advancing 2.6% to 60,279.37, while SoftBank Group jumped 15% ahead of its earnings announcement. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite each gained 0.4%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.1%. On Monday, the S&P 500 gained 2.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.2% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.7%, marking a second consecutive daily gain for the S&P 500. Investors are now focusing on the US October Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, November 10. All regional market figures reflect AP-reported intraday data as of approximately 03:44 UTC and are not closing prices.

US OCTOBER CPI DUE TUESDAY: ECONOMISTS EXPECT SLOWER MONTHLY PRICE GROWTH

Daily Market Update

US OCTOBER CPI DUE TUESDAY: ECONOMISTS EXPECT SLOWER MONTHLY PRICE GROWTH

The US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is due Tuesday, with economists expecting slower monthly price growth. The Bloomberg survey median forecasts headline CPI to rise 0.3%, half September's 0.6% increase, while core CPI is expected to advance 0.2%, its smallest monthly gain in three months. No year-on-year comparison is available because the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish an October 2025 CPI report. Separately, Bloomberg Economics projects headline CPI growth of 0.25% and core CPI growth of 0.24%, compared with 0.65% and 0.33% in September. Used vehicles, consumer electronics and owners' equivalent rent are among the components expected to record slower price increases. The October report will be the final inflation release before the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting, as investors assess the outlook for interest rates.

US OCTOBER NONFARM PAYROLLS: ECONOMISTS EXPECT 59,000 NEW JOBS

Daily Market Update

US OCTOBER NONFARM PAYROLLS: ECONOMISTS EXPECT 59,000 NEW JOBS

The US October nonfarm payrolls report is due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, with economists expecting 59,000 new jobs, nearly double September's 29,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%. September's payroll growth fell short of the 93,000 market forecast, while July and August figures were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs. ADP reported 86,000 private-sector jobs added in October, exceeding its 75,000 forecast. However, estimates for the official report range from 50,000 at Barclays to 95,000 at RSM. Deutsche Bank expects 55,000 jobs, Wells Fargo forecasts 65,000, and MUFG Research projects 90,000. For unemployment, most forecasts point to 4.2%, while Barclays expects a slight decline to 4.1%.

BANK OF ENGLAND RATE DECISION TODAY: ECONOMISTS EXPECT A HIKE TO 4.0%

Daily Market Update

BANK OF ENGLAND RATE DECISION TODAY: ECONOMISTS EXPECT A HIKE TO 4.0%

The Bank of England is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision at 12:00 GMT on Thursday, November 5, with economists surveyed by Reuters expecting a 25-basis-point increase from 3.75% to 4.0%. The anticipated 7–2 vote would mark the first rate hike since August 2023. UK consumer inflation reached 3.5% year-on-year in September, exceeding the BoE’s 3.0% forecast and remaining above its 2% target. Meanwhile, businesses expect wage settlements of around 3.5% next year, with limited signs of second-round wage pressures so far. Financial markets have priced in at least three further quarter-point increases in 2027, while PIMCO economist Peder Beck-Friis expects one additional hike in February, followed by an extended period of unchanged rates.

RBA RAISES CASH RATE TO 4.85% AS TRIMMED MEAN INFLATION FORECASTS RISE

Daily Market Update

RBA RAISES CASH RATE TO 4.85% AS TRIMMED MEAN INFLATION FORECASTS RISE

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85% at its November meeting, with six Board members supporting the increase and three favouring no change. The central bank revised its trimmed mean inflation forecast for December 2026 to 3.6% and raised its June 2027 projection to 3.5%. Meanwhile, the GDP growth forecast for December 2027 was lowered to 1.3%, while the unemployment outlook was revised higher. The RBA warned of a growing risk that higher inflation expectations could become embedded, reaffirming its commitment to bringing inflation sustainably back to target.

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