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Marketing Together we're stronger GBP/USD HOLDS NEAR 1.3500 AS US CPI AND UK GDP TAKE CENTER STAGE

GBP/USD consolidates near 1.3500 as markets await key US and UK economic data, with inflation, GDP and Fed rate expectations shaping the near-term outlook.

Daily Market Update August 12, 2026

GBP/USD HOLDS NEAR 1.3500 AS US CPI AND UK GDP TAKE CENTER STAGE

GBP/USD HOLDS NEAR 1.3500 AS US CPI AND UK GDP TAKE CENTER STAGE

GBP/USD remained in a narrow consolidation around the 1.3500 psychological level during the first half of Wednesday’s European session as markets awaited important economic releases from both the United States and the United Kingdom.

The immediate focus is the US Consumer Price Index due Wednesday, followed by the preliminary UK second-quarter GDP figures and US Producer Price Index on Thursday. These releases may influence expectations for monetary policy in both economies and contribute to near-term movements in GBP/USD.

Federal Reserve expectations remain an important factor for the US Dollar. Deutsche Bank strategists noted that futures were indicating around a 51% probability of a September rate increase, while emphasizing that an upside or downside inflation surprise could materially shift current market pricing.

Separately, according to CME FedWatch data cited in the supplied commentary, markets currently assign a greater than 75% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase by the end of the year. These figures represent market-implied expectations rather than confirmed Federal Reserve policy outcomes.

For GBP/USD, the 1.3500 area remains an important near-term technical reference. The pair has recently moved through this psychological level but has so far struggled to establish significant momentum away from it, keeping the area in focus ahead of the upcoming macroeconomic releases.

Market participants will continue to monitor US CPI, UK second-quarter GDP, US PPI and Federal Reserve rate expectations, with incoming data potentially influencing both US Dollar pricing and the short-term direction of GBP/USD around the 1.3500 region.

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