GOLD SLIPS BELOW $4,300 AS FED HIKE BETS AND YIELDS SUPPORT USD
Gold remained under pressure near a one-week low below $4,300, as expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase and elevated US Treasury yields continued to support the US Dollar. The stronger dollar and higher yields remain key factors weighing on the non-yielding metal.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool cited in the source, markets are pricing nearly a 70% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in October. Expectations strengthened after US business activity accelerated for a fourth consecutive month, with the S&P Global flash Composite PMI Output Index rising from 56.0 in August to 58.4 in September, its highest level since July 2021.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield also climbed to its highest level since July 2007, while the US Dollar reached a nearly two-month high. These moves have added pressure to Gold and kept the near-term outlook cautious.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains below key resistance levels, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,227 providing nearby structural support. Further downside references include the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $4,101 and the previous swing low near $3,940.
On the other hand, initial resistance is located at the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $4,316, followed by the 100-day EMA around $4,359 and the 38.2% retracement near $4,405. A sustained move above this resistance cluster could ease the current bearish technical bias and bring $4,515 and $4,693 into focus.
For market participants, the key factors remain Fed rate expectations, US Treasury yields, US Dollar strength and the $4,227–$4,405 technical range, which may provide further context for the near-term direction of XAU/USD.
⚠️ Risk warning: Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose all of your invested capital. Please ensure you fully understand the risks before trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
